How’s the market? Different year, same pattern…

North Orange County - Expect the same cycle every year -- unless something drastic happens
North Orange County – Expect the same cycle every year — unless something drastic happens

If 2014 follows the same pattern as 2013 (and any year before that), you can expect the following to happen:

– Inventory will continue to gradually rise until the fall season

– The peak of activity (homes selling) will be between April and August.

– Home sales will decline after August

If you’re like most homeowners, you’re excited about your increased equity. Many homeowners who were barely “break even” or upside down with their loan are now wondering if they’ll have enough after selling to apply toward a downpayment. As values continue to rise and the economy improves, look for an increased number of “move-up” homeowners looking to sell their existing home to purchase a larger one. 

Here’s the California Association of Realtors (CAR)’s forecast for 2014:

After a huge surge in prices in 2013, this year looks to be more moderate.
After a huge surge in prices in 2013, this year looks to be more moderate.

Keep in mind that we are already 1/4th into 2014. As multiple offers fuel rising values, look for an uptick in supply from the move-up sellers who’ll likely sell contingent.

The big difference between 2013 and 2014? Don’t expect prices to go up 28% in California. As the chart above shows, CAR expects a 6% gain.

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